So how much do recruiting rankings really matter? How accurate are the 'experts' in guessing how good a high school player might be in college, they are average at best in my opinion. Don’t get too excited when your team posts a high ranking by the recruiting services. There are countless examples of 5-star players becoming busts (Penn State is notorious for recruiting highly rated offensive lineman who never materialize) and walk-ons becoming stars (Deon Butler comes to mind, a walk-on who became Penn State's all time leader receiver in most categories).
There is no doubt Penn State had an amazing recruiting class this year, finishing in the top 10 unanimously by most ‘experts’. But how will this class finish 3-4 years from now?
Well, SI has looked back at the class of 2007 based on the facts, how they performed on the field.
Sports Illustrated - Ranking the 2007 Recruiting Classes on Production
Penn State had a typical recruiting class in 2007. The Nittany Lions finished in the Top 20 among most ‘experts’ (anywhere from 15 to 20). The #1 rated team back in 2007 per the ‘experts’ was Florida and based on performance on the field evaluated 3 years later, they kept that #1 ranking. The big surprises when it came to comparing how they were ranked in 2007 vs. performance 3 years later were teams like Boise State who finished #2 in SI’s ranking (I don’t think I will bother to say how they were ranked in 2007, but it was not high). And Georgia Tech, who ranked anywhere from 15 to 20 back in 2007, but with some solid performances the past few years, they pulled the #3 rank in 2010. Other big movers were VT (initially ranked #29, finished #7) and Iowa (initially ranked #28, finished #8 – Ferentz can coach plain and simple).
So you are probably wondering how Penn State did, so again we finished anywhere from 15-20 in 2007 and based on SI’s opinion we finished ~14. So the positive to take-away is we took the talent from 2007 and developed it on-par with how the experts predicted. On the ‘glasses is half-empty side, we did not do a great job coaching up the talent above expectations (like Boise State and GT did).
Overall, I think you have to be pleased if you are a Penn State fan. While it would have been great to be ranked a bit higher and have competed for a few National Championships the last few years, this class has delivered mostly 10-win seasons and a conference championship. Let’s hope this year’s class finishes with a ranking as high or better when we look back in 2013.
We are Penn State
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